After joining WTO, after years of growth, China has evolved into a global manufacturing powerhouse, 2014 global merchandise exports accounted for up to 12.5%, is located in the world; to increase the value of measure, Chinese is among the world's top three in 2009, accounting for 9.3%.
However, Chinese dividend on the old generation trade agreement has been basically completed the release. On the one hand, the domestic economy more and more vulnerable to the impact of overseas supply and demand; on the other hand, the WTO Doha round has stalled, bonus to China WTO on behalf of the multilateral trade agreements has gradually dissipated, China in slow advance the rapid development of regional trade agreements. We believe that the future of international trade competition along the value chain, and the cooperation is mainly to regional and bilateral forms; the China are faced with complex internal and external pressure game industry upgrading trade cooperation enclosure.
China trade iniemal
After joining WTO in 2001, China strengthened its national mobilization cost leading strategy, the main beneficiaries, not only was once the primary surplus side of Global trade imbalances, also accumulated a large number of foreign currency reserve assets. As mentioned earlier, the imbalance of G2 marks the external imbalance of circulation of globalization 3 is difficult to reconcile, after the crisis, although the trade imbalance between China and the US have eased, but the global imbalance of overall improvement is not obvious, but the imbalance between the core from China and dispersed to more consumption and production, resources in china. Before the crisis 2000~2007 current-account surplus rate increased after the crisis, 2007~2013 current account rates have dropped; the deficit is similar: after the crisis of trade protection policies under the system of beggar thy neighbour by self adjustment based on the real exchange rate influence.
For the major developed economies, the trade trend has some special changes, especially in the United States, its manufacturing return policy and shale gas revolution in energy independence makes the demand of "Involution", this is the main reason for the weak recovery of Global trade activity. Because the private sector leverage to more fully, the U.S. economy has entered a relatively high uncertainty of the recovery channel, but for other economies has pulled far better than before. In Japan Andouble economics, to lift inflation, stimulate consumption for monetary expansion characteristics.
It is interesting to compare the differentiation of the euro zone, the edge of the sovereign debt crisis has been temporary, but it is difficult to cure; especially the Greek sovereign debt problem became a periodic outbreak risk point. The leverage ratio difference and the current account (deficit / surplus) differentiation rate caused by the differences, so that the core euro area and the edge of our country in crisis after serious differentiation. In order to maintain the stability of the euro area, the leading edge of countries into the painful fiscal consolidation process, one of the most important feature is the external deficit narrowed: it makes the euro zone from deficit economies over Germany toil under the support of gradually become surplus economies typical. In a word, with the active and passive adjustment of the major economies, international payments imbalances in crisis after a certain improvement, but globalization 3 "production - consumption" and "savings crisis" and not to break the cycle.
Global trade competition along the value chain expansion
But only from the balance of payments index of traditional knowledge under the background of globalization of trade imbalance is not enough, the future of Global trade competition along the global value chain, with the rapid development of products, Multi-National Corporation, intra industry trade, to increase the value of statistics of international trade situation is more worthy of attention. With the deepening of globalization 3 three yuan division, the global division of labor from the final product to division of elements in production chain as the foundation, the developed countries in the process of globalization for the focus of policy changes, more attention to service trade from the traditional trade in goods, from free trade to the so-called fair trade, from the final product to the value chain, steering elements from the integration of resources. The future of international division of labor based on the value chain reconstruction trade agreement in the reconstruction process, as China manufacturing and processing the main producing countries are in a disadvantageous position.
The global value chain is linked with the global commodity trade as a single economy, study the value added through international trade to achieve a set of statistical system and research method. How to get rid of the production in the upstream and downstream extrusion by fate, migration along the value chain from low-end to high-end, is the future Chinese domestic industry upgrading and foreign trade competitiveness priority among priorities.
According to the value added measure, according to the 2009 data, China is not the biggest exporter, and behind the United States in second, but China is achieved through exports to increase the value of overseas economies most, which shows typical Chinese manufacturing in the global industrial chain in the middle position.
Overall, China external sector, especially the manufacturing sector has integration with the global industrial chain depth; but the trade surplus is mainly composed of low value-added industries to create. The domestic value added $618 in 2011 Chinese per $1000 of exports, according to the classification of the trade, general trade exports and create increased value of $776, significantly higher than the processing trade of $384; by industry, the middle reaches of industry export value added rate is lower than the upstream and downstream resources industry of the service industry, the China the main manufacturing and processing trade surplus is Chinese since the accession to the WTO and to the middle reaches of the industry as the representative of the. For example, according to the 2010 data, each Iphone $179 in wholesale prices, Chinese only create 3.6%